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CME Analysis Information (for CME activity ID: 2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001)
Measurement Creation Time:
Catalog: M2M_CATALOG
Data Level: 0 (0=real-time, 1=real-time and checked by supervising forecaster, 2=retrospective science level data analysis)
Use as primary measurement: true
Measurement Technique: SWPC_CAT
Detecting Instruments:
SOHO: LASCO/C2
SOHO: LASCO/C3
STEREO A: SECCHI/COR2
GOES: CCOR-1
Image Type: running difference
Speed (km/s): 587.0
Speed measured at height (Rs): None Entered
Type: C
Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ): -14.0/ 11.0
Half Angular Width (degree): 37.0
Minor Half-width (degree): None Entered
Tilt (degree): None Entered
Time@21.5: 2026-02-02T07:20Z
Info/Session URL: None Entered
Note: 
Final, approximate and speculative analysis based on the fitting with all three coronagraphs (SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1) once STEREO A COR2 imagery became available after the end of the daily data gap in STEREO A. This analysis leaves out the earliest, more northward, faint front seen in SOHO C2 and CCOR-1 as the likely corresponding very faint front in the first couple of available STEREO A COR2 after the data gap is very unclear/obscured by brighter following front. The CME is treated as one event in this analysis. The fitting indicates a likely significant deflection westwards from the source location (location of the X-class flares from Active Region 14366), possibly due to the effect of the coronal hole to the NE of the Active Region location. Analysis is complicated by the asymmetrical shape of the CME in STEREO A COR2, the fact that the start of the CME is obscured by the data gap in STEREO and the difficulty separating multiple overlapping fronts in SOHO and CCOR-1.
Measurement Feature Code(s):
LE: Leading Edge
General Keyword(s):
Version 1 submitted on 2026-02-02T14:34Z by Anna Chulaki
Version 2 submitted on 2026-02-02T18:12Z by Anna Chulaki
A Notification with ID 20260202-AL-012 was sent on 2026-02-02T16:46Z
A Notification with ID 20260203-AL-001 was sent on 2026-02-03T02:10Z

The List of WSA-ENLIL Results:
Model Name Model Completion Time AU CME Input(s) Predicted Earth Impact Predicted Other Location(s) Impact
WSA-ENLIL+Cone 2026-02-02T14:50Z 2.0
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-02-04T21:32Z
Duration of disturbance (hr) = 25.5
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1
Possible Kp index:
(kp)90=5
(kp)135=7
(kp)180=7
 Solar Orbiter = 2026-02-03T17:23Z
OSIRIS-APEX = 2026-02-05T06:00Z
STEREO A = 2026-02-05T10:00Z

All directly linked activities:
2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001


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